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We know that in its effort to tame inflation, the Reserve Bank was hoping that unemployment levels would rise, and the latest jobless figure released last week was above 4% for the first time in two years. So, does this mean the Reserve Bank’s job is now done and we can expect interest rates to fall?
Compared to pre-COVID levels, there were an extra 23,400 people waiting to start work who were categorised as being unemployed, and there were an extra 86,800 who were also waiting to start work but were not categorised as being in the labour force. If the extra 23,400 “attached but unemployed” workers were counted as employed, the unemployment rate could have been as low as 3.9 per cent and employment growth higher.
It’s unlikely the RBA will draw any conclusions from this data. Obviously, the RBA has a dilemma — if they wait too long to start cutting rates unemployment might go higher than they want and hurt our economy, but if they start cutting rates too early we will start borrowing and spending again and this will be inflationary.
The team and I look forward to seeing you this weekend.
John Moran
Director
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